Senior Actuary

A. Actuarial modelling, forecasting and risk Develop and apply actuarial models to understand population need, service demand, utilisation, outcomes, expenditure and financial risk. Produce projections and forecasts using appropriate actuarial methods and assumptions. Apply scenario, sensitivity and probabilistic techniques to assess uncertainty and risk. Monitor model performance and identify opportunities for refinement and improvement. Ensure assumptions, limitations and uncertainty are clearly documented and communicated. B. Strategic planning and financial sustainability Support strategic planning and commissioning by modelling the impact of population change, service transformation and alternative demand scenarios. Assess the implications of demographic and non-demographic growth for future resource requirements. Contribute to analyses of financial sustainability, affordability and risk. Assist in understanding the drivers of expenditure and utilisation and the distinction between underlying trends and short-term variation. C. Commissioning, payment and resource allocation Support evaluation of commissioning and payment approaches, including population-based budgets, risk adjustment, capitated arrangements and risk-sharing mechanisms. Contribute actuarial analysis to business cases, commissioning proposals and service redesign initiatives. Work with finance, commissioning and health economics colleagues to assess the relationship between financial risk, incentives and outcomes. D. Data, assumptions and assurance Analyse large, complex population, activity, utilisation, outcome, cost and financial datasets. Assess data quality, completeness, bias and fitness for purpose. Develop and document assumptions using historical experience, trend analysis, external evidence and professional judgement. Undertake validation, peer review and quality assurance of actuarial analyses. Maintain reproducible analytical approaches and appropriate technical documentation. E. Insight, communication and multidisciplinary working Translate complex actuarial findings into clear recommendations for decision-makers. Present forecasts, assumptions, risks and uncertainty in a way that is accessible to non-specialist audiences. Contribute actuarial content to strategic plans, committee papers, option appraisals, evaluations and business cases. Work collaboratively with health economists, data scientists, public health specialists, finance teams and commissioners. Support implementation and monitoring of decisions informed by actuarial analysis. F. Professional and organisational development Maintain professional actuarial knowledge and skills through continuing professional development. Contribute to the development of actuarial methods, modelling standards and shared analytical resources. Support the development of less experienced analysts and actuarial trainees where appropriate. Contribute to a culture of learning, collaboration and continuous improvement.